By Irshad Salim

Elections on Nov 12 for the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly are expected to redefine the general contour of Pakistan politics and more importantly these results will establish the form and substance of the image and popularity of almost all the major political parties who are participating in it.

After the February 2008 national elections, this is the first major election challenge for PPP, PMl-N and PML-Q, ANP, to name a few.

The Punjab bye-polls which were supposed to have been held some time back was postponed at the last minute. Post-2008, these polls would have established the public standings of these parties more correctly – something which the GALLUP Pakistan have been doing all along but to the extent of creating opinion polls.

Some point to a probable secret Saudi-Nawaz deal where it is speculated that Sharif agreed with the Kingdom not to contest polls if he were to return to Pakistan before the 2008 poll. Some say the PML-N was not sure if it would comfortably win the bye-polls, and therefore they decided not to take a chance and instead let the public opinion (GALLUP poll results) prevail that they still remained the most popular party in the country- but the official line given was that security issues were critical enough in the largest province of the country to warrant poll postponement.

In Gilgit-Baltistan poll, 24 seats are up for grabs but more than 223 candidates are said to be in the running – a whopping ratio of 1:10.83 indicating more than the usual interest in a first time such election in Gilgit-Baltistan. Only recently, the northern most area – called Pakistan’s backyard – was declared a political unit with a Governor heading the seat of power and a CM and an Assembly.

Peoples Party has nominated 23 candidates, PML-N 15, PML-Q 14, MQM 21, GBDA 10, PTI 2 and the JI has issued tickets to two candidates.

Besides the mainstream political parties, the Gilgit-Baltistan Democratic Alliance (GBDA), the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), the Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) and the Awami National Party (ANP) have fielded their candidates. A large number of independent and nationalist candidates are also contesting the polls. JUI-F is said to be not fielding any candidate but may be supporting others.

The PPP government a few months back enacted the Empowerment and Self-Governance Order 2009, under which the GBLA (Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly) will have its own chief minister and the assembly would make its own budget, having powers to legislate on 61 subjects. However, critics are sceptical of the package, calling it a political gimmick, which vests all the power in the governor, an “outsider”. PPP’s Qamar uz Zama Kaira is its first Governor.

Critics also contend that the so-called package does not bestow any political and constitutional rights on the Gilgit-Baltistan residents. They would not have any representation in the National Assembly and the Senate, it is said.

The Election Commission of Gilgit-Baltistan has announced a total of 1,033 polling stations, including 311 in Gilgit; 128 in Ghizer; 274 in Skardu; 144 in Ganche; 95 in Diamer and 81 in Astor districts.

A total of 4,15,000 male and 3,30,000 female voters will cast votes.

PML-N it is said is in a position to win a fair number of seats. PPP is said to be facing a tough time even though it is sure to win some seats – specially after the Benazir Bhutto Income Support program which let the ruling party distribute monies to the locals- and therefore tacitly having been able to assure voting in their favor, their opponents have claimed. PPP has denied of all such claims.

Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q) leader Marvi Memon Saturday while addressing a public gathering in Dinour, urged the ruling party to refrain from rigging the elections, or PML-Q would raise voice in and outside the Parliament, she warned. She has already raised the issue of partisanship in matters of BBISP (Benazir Bhutto Income Support Program) and has charged PPP of uneven and biased distribution of the grant.

According to reports, the MQM although a new entrant in the politics of Gilgit-Baltistan has made significant inroads even in the far-flung areas, and the youths are more inclined towards it. The MQM leader Altaf Hussain addresses almost every meeting of the party telephonically on a daily basis, and the people are much impressed by his knowledge and affinity with the area.

The MQM’s entry into the politics of Gilgit-Baltistan has also contributed in weakening the PPP even in its strongholds. MQM Parliamentary Leader Haider Abbas Rizvi claimed that the MQM will emerge as the largest party in Gilgit-Baltistan.

GEO reporter giving a commentary on the poll campaign today on Aaj Kamran Khan Kay Saath talk show said the locals seemed to be inclined in voting for MQM as they feel that the established political parties have been failing them. They also point out to MQM’s middle-class based liberal left-of-the-center politics and their resultant performances in Karachi as their cause for their support. MQM’s latest populist stance on NRO and Kerry-Lugar Bill have also played a role in their latest synergystic political momentum – something that seem to be coming handy in these polls.

Even though these elections will not make any numerical changes to the present parliament but the nation seems to be closely watching it as all major players are participating in it and their performance here will influence the latter’s present and future opinion formation. Lessons learnt here and results obtained here by these parties will serve as benchmarks for their future planning and performance. A new alliance may also emerge out of this small but important political exercise. Already talks are underway (behind the scene) on the likelihood of forming a national government or a Bangladesh type setup – or a hybrid with a democratic semblance – something that will still remain kosher under the Kerry-Lugar Bill and will strengthen the hands of the existing parliamentary players without discharging off the assembly.

Next few weeks are crucial and critical but may not necessarily be a de ja vu. But then anything can be expected in Pakistan. While our establishment is used to taking exits and U-turns, our nation is used to accepting these as fait accomplii.