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PTI, PML-N Running Neck and Neck, Undecided Voters Turnout To Swing Election 2018 Results

A PKonweb/BE2C2 analysis reveals that overall voters turnout is expected to exceed 2013 numbers by nearly 8 to 10 percent with maximum increase among youth, women and the millenials both in rural and urban. That could upset forecasts.

JUL 24, 2018: PTI and PML-N are running neck and neck, with PTI ahead in the national vote bank and PML-N ahead in Punjab.

According to Gallup Pakistan’s latest poll of polls, PTI vote has increased rapidly nationally since 2013 (nearly doubling in a short span), while PML-N vote has dropped since 2013 but is forecasted to be second largest party nationally.

The poll of polls is based on data from five separate polls carried out in the months leading up to the July 25 elections. It constitutes the average of poll findings by five different polling organizations and publishers: Gallup Pakistan, Institute for Public Opinion Research, Sustainable Development Policy Institute/Herald, Pulse Consultants and Roshan Pakistan.

The report reveals that the national average of expected votes as computed by the poll outfit ranges between 30 to 32% for PTI; 27% to 30% for PML-N; and 17% to 20% for PPP.

The poll also indicates that the dramatic rise of PTI at both national and provincial level is mostly on account of winning over voters of PML-N as well as other parties.

However, the research organization concluded that the 12 per cent undecided voters may tilt the balance of the election in Punjab, the country’s largest province, thus ultimately determining the fate of the next federal government.

The five polls show that PML-N’s vote bank from the 2013 elections has declined nationally by 3-6pc. PTI’s vote bank, meanwhile, has nearly doubled from 17pc in 2013 to 32pc presently.

But the swing vote in Punjab may ultimately determine the fate of the next federal government, as undecided voters dropped from 21pc two months ago to 13pc in the final week of the elections. Nearly 6pc of them switched to PTI.

Analysis suggests the profile of the undecided voters is close to the profile of PML-N voters. If these undecided PML-N voters decide to join the PTI fold or go back to PML-N in large numbers the situation may change drastically.

“The conclusion shared by nearly all pollsters is that it is an unpredictable election,” Gallup Pakistan wrote in its report.

A PKonweb/BE2C2 analysis reveals that overall voters turnout is expected to exceed 2013 numbers by nearly 8 to 10 percent with maximum increase among youth, women and the millenials both in rural and urban. That could upset forecasts.

In 2013, the votecount was nearly 33 percent out of the total registered voters.

The analysis also shows the emergence f two major block voters community hitherto discussed — the ‘bible belt’ voters (KP, Fata and Punjab rural) and the military-related families (mostly in KP, Punjab) having a significant weight in the vote count.

Ultimate decider to swing poll results will be the incremental number of votes polled on national level and in Punjab, reveals the analysis.






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