By Irshad Salim

President Asif Ali Zardari today relinquished command of and control Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal to prime minister Gilani, and signaled he was ready to shed more power as he faces growing pressure to resign.

Friday night, appearing on Talk Show “Front Line”, an apparently beleaguered Zardari committed that come December he would relinquish powers he now holds under 17th Amendment and Article 58 (2)(b). Presently he has the authority to sack the parliament and to appoint the armed services chiefs.

Zardari is under pressure over corruption charges leveled against him since 1997 and now that the NRO has become history, he finds himself exposed - a lame duck according to some, even though he may technically and legally be able to remain in the presidency under “indemnity” act embedded in the constitution. But all moral authorities to remain President seem to have vanished, say observers.

He also has found himself locked in a power struggle with the military, which has objected to his overtures toward rival nuclear neighbor India and acceptance of a multibillion dollar U.S. aid bill (Kerry-Lugar Bill) that came with conditions unacceptable to the army. The army voiced its concern in public (for the first time in its history) following which PPP-led government made special requests to the Washington administration to make necessary amendments which then issued clarifications that the said bill was not meant to be what it was being perceived as by the army and others. The damage was already done.

The pressure on Zardari is on from the public, the establishment (read the army) and the media to decide on his future as President. In coming days, events may unravel but democratic dispensation will remain in tact, as no stakeholders including the United States want instability or permanent distraction in Pakistan.

Risking political turmoil that could distract the U.S.-allied nation from its fight against the Taliban and other militants near the Afghan border, Washington  wants proactive  ’steps taken’ by the civil government and or the establishment to maintain focus on the most critical element of their bilateral relationship - War on Terror. As President Obama has repeatedly said in his speeches, the security of Pakistan and the United States are tied together.

And, if that meant some heads (including Zardari’s) should roll, be it, said one observer close to the establishment.

Twice in the past, similar requests and subsequent moves were made - once in July 2007 when Gen (R) Musharraf, weakened by his attempt to oust the Chief Justice, was prodded to reach out to Benazir Bhutto and create a grand “secular alliance” to remain at the helm with the nuclear button in his control and to bring Benazir back to Pakistan thereby adding legitimacy to his rule and to strengthen the liberal progressive political base critical to the overall game plan of the allies. A second such move in August 2008 saw an inexperienced controversial Zardari brought into power and Musharraf let to walk into sunset. Musharraf’s parting shot: Pakistan Ka Khuda Hi Hafiz Hai.

The military junta does not want Zardari to have his finger on the nuclear button. Ideally, they would like to control it but with Kerry-Lugar Bill conditionalities thrown in their face coupled with India’s fear of GHQ’s militaristic adventurism, they would rather see the control in the hands of a popular duly elected political leader. The United States has already assured Delhi it has ’some access’ to Pakistan’s nuclear assets, Seymour Hersh said in his interview to Dr Shahid Masood on Meray Mutabiq.

The military did not want Zardari to have the control and therefore when Zardari attempted to have the Nuclear Command Authority Ordnance enacted into a Bill by the parliament, the document ended up on the table of a Standing committee rather than be voted upon. In that Ordnance, the President was the Chairman of the Authority- meaning Zardari would have had his finger on the nuclear button. The PM according to that Ordnance was the Vice Chairman of the Command authority. President Musharraf had in his time created this Ordnance and made himself as President, the Chairman of the Authority and thus having control on the nuclear assets. Zardari attempted to slip this Ordnance through but was ‘roadblocked’, as one source said.

GHQ would rather see PM Gilani have his finger on the nuclear button. It also suits powers to be (read USA and Kerry-Lugar Bill conditionalities) that the nuclear control slip away from the army and into the civilian hands. The West fears that possible rogue elements in the army may end up having some kind of access to the nuclear assets if the control rested with the army. It was, according to a very influential security and defense analyst, an old wish of the powers to be which seems to be coming true i.e. to see the moderates in Pakistan have access and control of the nuclear assets. That day may have come now. There is nothing wrong with that, said one analyst. Whether this arrangement will change if Nawaz Sharif becomes the PM, is another question, said a PML-N supporter, adding “we’ll see what the army high command does at that time”.

According to one observation, Nawaz Sharif and his party may not be allowed to come to power in the center for several years to come. With the help of the liberal, progressive forces (PPP, MQM, ANP, NP), the establishment with the dollars and drags pumped in by the powers to be want to clean up not only the safe havens, but Pakistan’s ‘ideologically warped’ psyche, according to one observer.

If you read the Kerry-Lugar Bill closely, you will recognize the road map for Pakistan… by connecting the dots in it, said one Pakistani-American who closely watches events in Pakistan.

Some analysts say the transfer of authority signaled Zardari’s willingness to divest powers as part of a compromise that would enable him to keep his job.

“It appears to be a self-defense and survival strategy,” said Rasool Bakhsh Rais, a political science professor at Lahore University of Management Science.

A military coup to oust Zardari appears unlikely, as does impeachment, since he heads the largest party in parliament. But the NRO-based amnesty’s expiration and his dispute with the powerful military leave him vulnerable as he struggles to maintain his hold on the presidency at a time when Pakistan’s foreign allies would prefer political stability.

A spokesman for the opposition party headed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called on Zardari to resign despite his immunity.

“Asif Ali Zardari should take high moral ground and resign so that his credibility will increase,” said Sadiqul Farooq, spokesman for the Pakistan Muslim League-N. Whether Farooq was echoing his leaders’ views is questionable as his party chief Nawaz has recently said he would like to see things remain in tact for the rest of the PPP term (another 3 years) rather than see an un-democratic setup replacing the present one.